Month: April 2012

  • Does War Serve Political Interests in Sudan and South Sudan?

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    When the situation along the Sudan-South Sudan border started to rapidly deteriorate a few weeks ago, I started to wonder what factors could be causing the Sudans to push each other closer and closer to conflict. So, I decided to explore a line of logic focusing on whether war, or at least low-intensity conflict, served… Read.

  • What might South Sudan’s Invasion of Heglig Indicate about its Negotiation Tactics?

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    It’s been a few days since South Sudan withdrew its troops from Heglig…or was expelled from the area, depending on which side you favor in the ongoing tit-for-tat between Sudan and South Sudan. Yet, there have been no signs of either country backing away from the precipice of war. In a nutshell, the causes of… Read.

  • Rise in Gulf of Guinea Piracy Calls Attention to Need for Regional Cooperation

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    Yesterday, the International Maritime Bureau’s Piracy Reporting Centre released its quarterly report on Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships, which highlighted the rise in pirate attacks in West Africa – mainly in Nigeria. While there were 10 reported pirate attacks in Nigeria for all of 2011, in the first three months of 2012, there have… Read.

  • Why Uganda Might Intervene in a Sudan-South Sudan Conflict

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    Over the past few months, there has been a steady escalation in the conflict between Sudan and South Sudan. Earlier this week, regional media sources reported that Uganda would support Juba in the case of a full-scale war with Khartoum. What are some potential reasons for Uganda’s to get involved in this conflict? Historical Ties,… Read.

  • Mali: Arrested Civilian Transition Portends Additional Challenges in Addressing Tuareg Rebellion

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    In spite of last week’s inauguration of Dioncounda Traoré as interim President, Mali’s military junta is still calling the shots, as evidenced by the arrests of several members of Mali’s political and military elite earlier this week. I won’t go into too much detail on the civilian transition and these arrests, as such analysis has… Read.

  • Update: Guinea-Bisssau Coup

    So I’m still unclear on what’s going on in Guinea-Bissau, but here’s what I have gathered so far: Elements of the country’s military have rather creatively proclaimed themselves the “Military Command.” The stated goal of the coup is to protect Guinea-Bissau from “foreign aggression,” which likely alludes to Angola’s mil-to-mil engagement to reform the country’s security sector.… Read.

  • Coup (attempt?) in Guinea Bissau

    There appear to be reports of a coup, or a coup attempt in Guinea-Bissau. For those unfamiliar with the country’s political turmoil in the past few years, Guinea-Bissau had been labeled a “narco-state” due to its role as a transit point for drugs – primarily cocaine – coming from Latin America across the Sahel and… Read.

  • Ethnically Ambiguous Journeys through the Diaspora

    On my About Me page, I alluded to the possibility of writing about my experience traveling in Africa – to add an entertaining counterweight to my more analytical rants and musings on the events unfolding on the continent. I figured a good intro to those types of posts would be the following short story: One… Read.

  • How to Create Your Own State: Lessons for the MNLA from Africa’s Successful Irredentist Movements

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    Today, the MNLA released a statement that they “irrevocably declare, as of this day Friday, April 6, 2012, the independent state of Azawad.” However a cursory look at post-colonial African history demonstrates that a declaration alone does not a state make. Signed in 1963, Article III of the Charter of the Organization of African Unity… Read.

  • Instability in Mali Complicates Regional Approach to AQIM

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    (Originally published in World Politics Review on April 5, 2012) Over the weekend, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) seized Kidal, Gao and Timbuktu, the three major cities of northern Mali that lie within the region the Tuareg rebel group refers to as “Azawad.” This development highlights the inability of the military-led… Read.

  • After the loss of Kidal and Gao, what next for the MNLA and CNRDR?

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    As anticipated, the MNLA has seized upon the confusion in Bamako to advance from more rural targets such as Ménaka and Tessalit to those that are more heavily populated and strategically important. In the last two days, Tuareg rebels have seized the northeastern Malian towns of Kidal and Gao, along with their military garrisons, making Timbuktu… Read.

Official White House Photo by Polly Irungu