Category: South Sudan

  • South Sudan’s Latest Crisis is Following a Familiar Script

    (Originally published in World Politics Review on June 20, 2025) In February, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir abruptly dismissed two of the country’s five vice presidents, and the following month, Vice President Riek Machar—Kiir’s longtime rival—was detained and placed under house arrest, where he has remained since then. The developments in Juba bear troubling similarities to the Read.

  • New book: Military Integration during War-to-Peace Transitions (Routledge, 2023)

    New book: Military Integration during War-to-Peace Transitions (Routledge, 2023)

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    I’m excited to announce that my dissertation has been published as Military Integration during War-to-Peace Transitions: South Sudan’s Attempt to Manage Armed Groups, 2006-13! In the 1960s, only 10% of peace agreements included some element of political-military accommodation – namely, military integration. From Burundi to Bosnia to Zimbabwe, that number had increased to over 50% Read.

  • The Disintegration of the Military Integration Process in South Sudan (2006–2013)

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    Originally published by Stability: International Journal of Security and Development on September 27, 2016) Abstract: This article argues that military integration served a critical purpose in 2006, arguably preventing large-scale conflict within South Sudan and ensuring a level of stability prior to the CPA-mandated referendum on self-determination in 2011. Nonetheless, integration was poorly-conceived and implemented, and received limited Read.

  • South Sudan at Five – Recommended Readings

    Today is the 5th anniversary of South Sudan’s independence. As the country is recovering from a devastating civil war and continues to suffer from rampant inflation, the government had previously announced that it would cancel independence celebrations. Instead, the two days preceding the holiday, South Sudan instead marked the occasion by having government and opposition Read.

  • Lesley on Africa practices small talk

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    On my About Me page, I alluded to the possibility of writing about my experience traveling in Africa – to add an entertaining counterweight to my more analytical rants and musings on the events unfolding on the continent. The following is a story about my attempt to bridge the gap between my previous work on conflict and Read.

  • Four Weaknesses of South Sudan’s Military Integration Process

    Four Weaknesses of South Sudan’s Military Integration Process

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    Originally published by Security Sector Reform Resource Centre on August 18, 2015) In December 2013, South Sudan’s military integration process faced its most serious challenge, as a political crisis that had been developing throughout the year within the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) suddenly escalated, dragging the country into civil war. Within days, Nuer elements of Read.

  • South Sudan’s warring parties agree to agree on a peace agreement

    (Originally published in The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage Blog on February 5, 2015) Since the beginning of the year, two developments have revived hope that South Sudan’s civil war, which began in December 2013, may soon come to an end. First, the country’s main political party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), whose split precipitated Read.

  • South Sudan’s Civil War – One Year On

    First of all, let me confess that I’m an idiot. I arrived in Juba a few days ago, and today, 15 December, is the one year anniversary of the start of South Sudan’s civil war. I’ve been asked if I did this on purpose, and told that I was traveling in the absolutely wrong direction. Read.

  • As Talks Stall, South Sudan Conflict Grinds to Stalemate

    (Originally published in World Politics Review on July 22, 2014) Seven months after fighting broke out between the government of South Sudan and anti-government forces, the conflict is at a stalemate, both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table. Unlike the early days of the conflict, when cities like Bor, Bentiu and Malakal changed Read.

  • South Sudan Post-Independence: Things Fall Apart

    (Originally published in War on the Rocks on July 17, 2014) Three years into its independence, South Sudan faces multiple crises on political, security, and humanitarian fronts. After almost a decade of relative peace following the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) with Sudan in 2005, a political dispute within South Sudan’s ruling party, Read.

  • Bentiu changes hands for the 4th time

    UPDATE as of 9am EST: Sudan Tribune reports that SPLM-IO has claimed to have recaptured Bentiu, while the government of South Sudan claims the SPLA is defending their positions in the town from rebel fighter.   In case you missed it, Sudan Human Security Baseline Assessment released some new briefs last week on the ongoing Read.

  • Never a dull moment with the SPLA…

    Although I’m writing this from my cushy office in northern Virgina, It seemed like relative calm had returned, at least, to Juba after the outbreak of violence across parts of South Sudan in mid-December. (For background on the roots of the current crisis, see Radio Tamazuj’s Nine questions about the South Sudan crisis: A guide for confused Read.

  • Museveni plays peacemaker by day and combatant by night in South Sudan

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    (Originally published in African Arguments on January 31, 2014) Within days of the outbreak of the violence in mid-December, the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) deployed to South Sudan at the government’s invitation. The UPDF’s mission at the outset was ostensibly to evacuate the over 200,000 stranded Ugandan nationals and to secure strategic installations in Juba. However, several Read.

  • Cessation of Hostilities (or Ceasefire Lite) signed for South Sudan

    Yesterday in Addis, a Cessation of Hostilities Agreement was signed between the Government of the Republic of South Sudan (GRSS) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement / Army in Opposition (SPLM/A in Opposition). The agreement enters into force 24 hours from the time at which it was signed. Contrary to what some media are reporting, this Cessation Read.

  • Lesley on Africa can’t get enough of #ThingsILoveAboutSouthSudan

    Earlier today, I wrote about the #ThingsILoveAboutSouthSudan hashtag, but I enjoyed the photos so much that I’m embedding more below: https://twitter.com/E_Poli/status/422078323867795457 The people you pass on the street. #thingsiloveaboutSouthSudan #southsudan pic.twitter.com/sIsVeBkKue — Ryan Musser (@musserryan) January 15, 2014 https://twitter.com/disastrpassport/status/422439377008984064 https://twitter.com/AguilB/status/423555496155820032 https://twitter.com/E_Poli/status/423561474490236928 Views from Jebel Kujur at dusk. My favorite. #thingsiloveaboutSouthSudan #SouthSudan pic.twitter.com/8QlhNuOOHs — Ryan Musser (@musserryan) Read.

  • Lesley on Africa loves #ThingsILoveAboutSouthSudan

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    I may have had a liberal relationship with the truth when I said I was in Twitter exile. Over the past few days, it appears that the hashtag  #ThingsILoveAboutSouthSudan has been trending, as those who have spent time in South Sudan share their positive experiences of the country and its people. Earlier this week, BBC Read.

  • South Sudan roundup (+ recommended readings!)

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    I’m in the process of transitioning from my current assignment back to The Mothership this month, so I haven’t been able to keep up with the events unfolding in South Sudan as much as I’d like. From what I can ascertain, here are some important developments from the past two weeks: Since mid-December, 189,000 South Sudanese Read.

  • Reporting the #SouthSudanCrisis: Do journalists (and analysts) have a R2P?

    Since violence broke out last week in South Sudan, I’ve been thinking about the role that information – or lack thereof – plays in stoking violence. I spent most of last week (here, here, and here) trying to parse fact from rumor, watching how some South Sudanese political elites stoked fears with their rhetoric (Salva Kiir, Read.

  • South Sudanese Tweeps to follow on #SouthSudanCrisis

    Last week, I compiled a list of people on twitter who I was following for information on the #JubaCrisis and #SouthSudanCrisis. Today, Aguil Lual Blunt (@AguilB), a South Sudanese-American fellow tweep, graciously compiled a list of South Sudanese on twitter who were tweeting on events in South Sudan as they unfolded. Local Media Organizations: @GurtongTrust @RadioMiraya @RadioDabanga @RadioTamazuj Read.

  • NTV Kenya Interview: What’s behind the South Sudan Turmoil?

    Today, I appeared on NTV Kenya with host Larry Madowo and South Sudanese musician and ex-child soldier Lam Tungwar to talk about recent developments in South Sudan – among other things, the incident in which U.S. aircraft sent to evacuate American citizens from the city of Bor in Jonglei State was fired upon by small arms fire. You can watch Read.

  • PBS News Hour Interview on South Sudan

    Yesterday evening, I appeared on PBS News Hour to talk about the week’s developments in South Sudan, about which I’d been writing here, here, here, here, and here. You can watch the video below: Read.

  • Comments on South Sudan in Think Africa Press & recommended reading

    Today, I gave an interview on BBC News on the situation in South Sudan and was included in Think Africa Press‘ Experts Weekly: South Sudan in Violent Crisis. In addition to my comments on the spat between President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, comments from other SMEs included: Matthew LeRiche, one of the authors of South Sudan: Read.

  • It’s Wednesday, so naturally Peter Gadet has defected from the SPLA

    As the title of this posts suggests, it’s Wednesday (click here for a laugh), so naturally Peter Gadet has defected from the SPLA. I continue to reiterate here and here that there’s a lot we still don’t know about what’s going on in South Sudan and former VP Riek Machar is still on the run. Read.

  • Day Two of #JubaCrisis: Still Many “Known Unknowns”

    As I wrote yesterday, something is going down in South Sudan. Here’s a few updates: Former VP Riek Machar is still missing. (My #WhereIsRiek hashtag still needs some love). His home has been raided and much of the property destroyed. In his press conference yesterday, President Salva Kiir referred to Riek as a “Prophet of Read.

  • *Something* is going down in South Sudan, but it’s unclear what

    Since yesterday around 6:30pm (local time), a series of events have been unfolding in Juba, South Sudan that are being characterized as either a mutiny of certain elements of the SPLA or a coup attempt. It’s still unclear what exactly is going on, and the news media has not been the best source of breaking Read.

  • The time when Salva Kiir nuked his large tent

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    Today, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir sacked his Vice President Riek Machar and dissolved the government, leaving undersecretaries of various ministries to run said ministries until further notice. Although there had been a few recent indications of internal fissures within the ruling Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the cold war between Salva and Riek Read.

  • Competing Imperatives: Post-Conflict Military Integration and Demobilization in South Sudan

    Last week, I did a webinar for the Cultural Knowledge Symposium‘s Speaker Series based on the research I have done thus far on South Sudan. You can see the video from the webinar below: Synopsis: Since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, the government of South Sudan has sought to neutralize Read.

  • Kiir reshuffles the SPLA

    Earlier this week, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir reshuffled officers within the SPLA. According to some of the people I spoke with when I was in Juba in August, this has been in the works for several months and was actually expected since last fall. They suspected that the next round of retirements and promotions Read.

  • The one where the SPLA accidentally downs an UNMISS helicopter…

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    I have developed a habit for blaming South Sudan for my inability to get anything on my “To Do” list done. That appears to be the case again today. News broke this morning that the SPLA had allegedly shot down a UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) Mi-8 helicopter that had been conducting a reconnaissance mission near Likuangole in Jonglei state. Read.

  • Force Reduction Key to South Sudan’s Military Transformation

    (Originally published in World Politics Review on November 5, 2012) South Sudan has embarked on a program to transform the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), the country’s preindependence guerrilla army, into a professional, conventional force by 2017. However, the success of this transformation strategy, referred to as Objective Force 2017, is contingent on a number Read.

  • Death, Divergence, and Division

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    This week brought a few high-profile deaths to this part of the African continent – namely Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) General Paulino Matip. Both men played crucial roles in their countries (and in Meles’ case, further abroad), and their deaths spurred some very impassioned, Read.

  • Coup allegations in South Sudan

    This week brought rumors of a coup plot last month against South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir. This marks at least the second time since late April that there have been rumors of this type. Just to set the scene, the first set of rumors came a few months after South Sudan decided to cut off Read.

  • Austerity and Corruption in South Sudan

    Last month, South Sudan’s Minister of Finance & Economic Planning presented the country’s 2012/2013 budget before the National Legislative Assembly. The budget, which is 6.4 billion South Sudanese Pounds (roughly $1.3B USD at black market rates), went into effect at the beginning of this month, taking into account the austere conditions brought about by the Read.

  • South Sudan celebrates SPLA Day, but what about human rights?

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    On May 16, South Sudan commemorated the 29th anniversary of the founding of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA). On top of fighting a 22 year-long war that secured South Sudan’s independence last year, the SPLA will now protect the country in the event that the low-intensity conflict with Sudan escalates. While South Sudan’s security forces had already espoused Read.

  • South Sudan’s Militia Melodrama

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    Yesterday, Al-Jazeera reported a “mass defection” of Sudanese troops to South Sudan after their refusal to attack the Kadar oilfield in South Sudan’s Upper Nile state over the weekend. According to Southern People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) spokesperson Colonel Philip Aguer Panyang, they defected with “full equipment, ten vehicles, seven mounted with heavy machine guns including Read.

  • Does War Serve Political Interests in Sudan and South Sudan?

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    When the situation along the Sudan-South Sudan border started to rapidly deteriorate a few weeks ago, I started to wonder what factors could be causing the Sudans to push each other closer and closer to conflict. So, I decided to explore a line of logic focusing on whether war, or at least low-intensity conflict, served Read.

  • What might South Sudan’s Invasion of Heglig Indicate about its Negotiation Tactics?

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    It’s been a few days since South Sudan withdrew its troops from Heglig…or was expelled from the area, depending on which side you favor in the ongoing tit-for-tat between Sudan and South Sudan. Yet, there have been no signs of either country backing away from the precipice of war. In a nutshell, the causes of Read.

  • Why Uganda Might Intervene in a Sudan-South Sudan Conflict

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    Over the past few months, there has been a steady escalation in the conflict between Sudan and South Sudan. Earlier this week, regional media sources reported that Uganda would support Juba in the case of a full-scale war with Khartoum. What are some potential reasons for Uganda’s to get involved in this conflict? Historical Ties, Read.

  • Lasting Solutions Elusive for South Sudan’s Militia Problem

    (Originally published in World Politics Review on March 12, 2012) Since the spring of 2010, South Sudan has been facing an onslaught of militia activity in Unity, Upper Nile and Jonglei states. For the most part, the government has pursued an “amnesty and integration” policy toward these militias, whereby members are offered amnesty for their Read.

  • The Two Sudans

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    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNU8ctsK6uw&list=UUK4j3y7KVe514tGiR3Q1yTQ&index=4&feature=plcp In an historic move, southern Sudan voted in January 2011 to become a separate nation from northern Sudan. Recently back from a trip to Rumbek in southern Sudan, CNA research analyst Lesley Anne Warner discusses the future of the two Sudans. Read.

  • Disputed Border Region Could Undermine Peaceful Sudan Division

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    (Originally published in the Atlantic.com on June 22, 2011) On July 9, southern Sudan will declare its independence from Sudan in accordance with the terms of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended the Second Sudanese Civil War, which lasted from 1983 to 2005. But with less than three weeks remaining before southern Sudan becomes Read.

Official White House Photo by Polly Irungu