South Sudan’s Latest Crisis is Following a Familiar Script

(Originally published in World Politics Review on June 20, 2025)

In February, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir abruptly dismissed two of the country’s five vice presidents, and the following month, Vice President Riek Machar—Kiir’s longtime rival—was detained and placed under house arrest, where he has remained since then.

The developments in Juba bear troubling similarities to the political dynamics that precipitated the country’s civil war from 2013 to 2018. Combined with renewed military confrontations between the country’s military and various armed groups, they suggest that the fragile peace established in 2018 may be unraveling.

While conflict is not inevitable, the convergence of familiar patterns—including the erosion of power-sharing arrangements, military fragmentation and succession dynamics—has significantly increased the risk of renewed violence.

(Read the Rest of the article on the World Politics Review website)