The Death of Odinga, a Consummate Dealmaker, Upends Kenyan Politics

In life, Raila Amolo Odinga was both kingmaker and perennial challenger, as well as a practitioner of political dealmaking who repeatedly reshaped Kenya’s democratic landscape through strategic alliances. His death last week at the age of 80 complicates incumbent President William Ruto’s path to a second term in the 2027 elections due to Odinga’s key role in the ethnic and regional alignments necessary for Ruto—or any politician for that matter—to secure the country’s top office.

This is particularly true given the array of challenges Kenya faces. A mounting pile of debt is forcing the government to spend one-third of its tax revenue on interest payments amid weak economic growth. A package of contentious tax hikes last year was meant to improve the country’s fiscal picture but instead triggered waves of well-coordinated protests led by angry Gen Z Kenyans. Now, with Odinga gone, the durability and effectiveness of Ruto’s Broad-Based Government—the power-sharing arrangement that brought Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement, or ODM, into Ruto’s Cabinet following last year’s protests—will be called into question.

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